Serie A· Brazil

Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc

Agendado

06/09, 22:30

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate4.25betclic_frSTALE

Casa1.31betclic_frSTALE

Fora7.00betclic_frSTALE

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	11.9%	8.38	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Fora	22.1%	4.52	+77.1%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Fora	11.7%	8.56	-6.5%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	24.2%	4.12	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Empate	23.7%	4.22	+4.3%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Empate	20.3%	4.93	-10.8%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	63.8%	1.57	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Casa	54.2%	1.85	-28.5%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Casa	68.0%	1.47	-10.2%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	56.2%	1.78	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Não	47.4%	2.11	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	58.4%	1.71	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	43.8%	2.28	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Sim	52.6%	1.90	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	41.6%	2.41	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	47.2%	2.12	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Over	51.9%	1.93	-4.0%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	48.6%	2.06	-10.1%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	52.8%	1.89	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Under	48.1%	2.08	-12.0%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	51.4%	1.95	-5.9%	31/08, 20:26	STALE

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	11.9%	16.9%	11.8%	5.0%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Fora	ml	22.1%	11.8%	11.8%	10.3%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Fora	poisson	11.7%	17.0%	11.8%	5.4%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	24.2%	22.0%	22.3%	2.3%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Empate	ml	23.7%	22.3%	22.3%	1.4%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Empate	poisson	20.3%	24.0%	22.3%	3.7%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	63.8%	61.1%	65.9%	2.7%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Casa	ml	54.2%	65.9%	65.9%	11.8%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Casa	poisson	68.0%	59.0%	65.9%	9.1%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	56.2%	52.9%	57.3%	3.3%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	ml	47.4%	57.3%	57.3%	9.9%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	poisson	58.4%	51.8%	57.3%	6.6%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	43.8%	47.1%	42.7%	3.3%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	ml	52.6%	42.7%	42.7%	9.9%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	poisson	41.6%	48.2%	42.7%	6.6%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	47.2%	50.3%	47.9%	3.1%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	51.9%	47.9%	47.9%	4.0%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	48.6%	49.5%	47.9%	0.9%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	52.8%	49.7%	52.1%	3.1%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	48.1%	52.1%	52.1%	4.0%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	51.4%	50.5%	52.1%	0.9%	✅	25 / 24

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	ml	66	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Fora	poisson	38	REJECTED EV (-0.0654) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	ml	48	REJECTED EV (0.0431) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	poisson	40	REJECTED EV (-0.1080) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	ml	29	REJECTED EV (-0.2851) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	poisson	33	REJECTED EV (-0.1018) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	40	REJECTED EV (-0.0400) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	44	REJECTED EV (-0.1008) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	40	REJECTED EV (-0.1196) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	44	REJECTED EV (-0.0595) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)

Contexto de Equipa

Corinthians

PPG (atual)

1.28

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

42.7

Forma (casa/fora)

46.2 / 38.9

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

25 / 0

Context Score*

49.0

Data Quality

100%

Chapecoense-sc

PPG (atual)

0.58

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

19.4

Forma (casa/fora)

30.6 / 8.3

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

30.2

Data Quality

100%

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Corinthians

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Chapecoense-sc

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	65.7%	1.52	✅
8.5	Under	34.3%	2.92	✅
9.5	Over	56.2%	1.78	✅
9.5	Under	43.8%	2.28	✅
10.5	Over	46.8%	2.14	✅
10.5	Under	53.2%	1.88	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	75.9%	1.32	✅
3.5	Under	24.1%	4.16	✅
4.5	Over	59.1%	1.69	✅
4.5	Under	40.9%	2.44	✅
5.5	Over	41.6%	2.41	✅
5.5	Under	58.4%	1.71	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	95.6%	1.05	⚠️
7.5	Under	4.4%	22.81	⚠️
8.5	Over	93.2%	1.07	⚠️
8.5	Under	6.8%	14.62	⚠️
9.5	Over	89.9%	1.11	✅
9.5	Under	10.1%	9.93	✅
10.5	Over	85.9%	1.16	✅
10.5	Under	14.1%	7.10	✅
11.5	Over	81.2%	1.23	✅
11.5	Under	18.8%	5.31	✅
12.5	Over	75.8%	1.32	✅
12.5	Under	24.2%	4.13	✅
13.5	Over	69.9%	1.43	✅
13.5	Under	30.1%	3.32	✅
14.5	Over	63.7%	1.57	✅
14.5	Under	36.3%	2.75	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	68.7%	1.46	✅
7.5	Under	31.3%	3.19	✅
8.5	Over	59.0%	1.70	✅
8.5	Under	41.0%	2.44	✅
9.5	Over	49.3%	2.03	✅
9.5	Under	50.7%	1.97	✅
10.5	Over	40.0%	2.50	✅
10.5	Under	60.0%	1.67	✅
11.5	Over	31.7%	3.15	✅
11.5	Under	68.3%	1.46	✅
12.5	Over	24.5%	4.08	✅
12.5	Under	75.5%	1.32	✅
13.5	Over	18.5%	5.40	✅
13.5	Under	81.5%	1.23	✅
14.5	Over	13.7%	7.30	✅
14.5	Under	86.3%	1.16	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	92.1%	1.09	⚠️
2.5	Under	7.9%	12.60	⚠️
3.5	Over	81.5%	1.23	✅
3.5	Under	18.5%	5.41	✅
4.5	Over	66.6%	1.50	✅
4.5	Under	33.4%	2.99	✅
5.5	Over	49.7%	2.01	✅
5.5	Under	50.3%	1.99	✅
6.5	Over	33.8%	2.96	✅
6.5	Under	66.2%	1.51	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	48.4%	2.07	✅
2.5	Under	51.6%	1.94	✅
3.5	Over	26.6%	3.76	✅
3.5	Under	73.4%	1.36	✅
4.5	Over	12.4%	8.07	✅
4.5	Under	87.6%	1.14	✅
5.5	Over	5.0%	20.11	⚠️
5.5	Under	95.0%	1.05	⚠️
6.5	Over	1.8%	57.23	⚠️
6.5	Under	98.3%	1.02	⚠️