Serie A· Brazil

Remo vs Flamengo

Agendado

06/09, 19:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate3.68betclic_frSTALE

Casa5.00betclic_frSTALE

Fora1.49betclic_frSTALE

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	63.9%	1.56	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Fora	23.5%	4.26	-62.7%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Fora	65.2%	1.53	+3.7%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	22.1%	4.52	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Empate	22.5%	4.44	-9.1%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Empate	19.9%	5.01	-19.4%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	13.9%	7.19	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Casa	54.0%	1.85	+195.0%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Casa	14.9%	6.73	-18.9%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	45.7%	2.19	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Não	41.7%	2.40	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	48.7%	2.05	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	54.3%	1.84	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Sim	58.3%	1.72	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	51.3%	1.95	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	58.9%	1.70	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Over	58.7%	1.71	+3.3%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	56.9%	1.76	+0.2%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	41.1%	2.43	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Under	41.3%	2.42	-16.1%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	43.1%	2.32	-12.6%	31/08, 20:26	STALE

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	63.9%	44.3%	64.6%	19.6%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Fora	ml	23.5%	64.6%	64.6%	41.1%	⚠️	24 / 24 ml says 0.235, other model(s) say 0.646 (disagreement 0.411 exceeds 0.4)
1X2 Fora	poisson	65.2%	43.7%	64.6%	21.5%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	22.1%	21.2%	21.0%	0.9%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	ml	22.5%	21.0%	21.0%	1.5%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	poisson	19.9%	22.3%	21.0%	2.4%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	13.9%	34.4%	14.4%	20.5%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	ml	54.0%	14.4%	14.4%	39.6%	⚠️	24 / 24 ml says 0.540, poisson+dixon_coles consensus says 0.144 (ml is 0.396 more optimistic, at or above 0.3) — Fase 11C.7 calibration found this pattern overconfident
1X2 Casa	poisson	14.9%	34.0%	14.4%	19.1%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	45.7%	45.2%	47.2%	0.5%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	ml	41.7%	47.2%	47.2%	5.5%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	poisson	48.7%	43.7%	47.2%	5.0%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	54.3%	54.8%	52.8%	0.5%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	ml	58.3%	52.8%	52.8%	5.5%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	poisson	51.3%	56.3%	52.8%	5.0%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	58.9%	57.8%	57.9%	1.1%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	58.7%	57.9%	57.9%	0.7%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	56.9%	58.8%	57.9%	1.9%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	41.1%	42.2%	42.1%	1.1%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	41.3%	42.1%	42.1%	0.7%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	43.1%	41.2%	42.1%	1.9%	✅	24 / 24

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	ml	25	REJECTED ml says 0.235, other model(s) say 0.646 (disagreement 0.411 exceeds 0.4) EV (-0.6267) is below the value threshold	REJECTED ml says 0.235, other model(s) say 0.646 (disagreement 0.411 exceeds 0.4)
1X2 Fora	poisson	29	REJECTED EV (0.0367) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	ml	43	REJECTED EV (-0.0909) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	poisson	42	REJECTED EV (-0.1942) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	ml	60	REJECTED ml says 0.540, poisson+dixon_coles consensus says 0.144 (ml is 0.396 more optimistic, at or above 0.3) — Fase 11C.7 calibration found this pattern overconfident	REJECTED ml says 0.540, poisson+dixon_coles consensus says 0.144 (ml is 0.396 more optimistic, at or above 0.3) — Fase 11C.7 calibration found this pattern overconfident
1X2 Casa	poisson	25	REJECTED EV (-0.1889) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	48	REJECTED EV (0.0325) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	43	REJECTED EV (0.0018) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	44	REJECTED EV (-0.1609) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	43	REJECTED EV (-0.1255) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)

Contexto de Equipa

Remo

PPG (atual)

0.96

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

31.9

Forma (casa/fora)

42.4 / 23.1

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

40.0

Data Quality

100%

Flamengo

PPG (atual)

2.00

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

66.7

Forma (casa/fora)

72.7 / 61.5

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

67.7

Data Quality

100%

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Remo

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Flamengo

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	55.1%	1.82	✅
8.5	Under	44.9%	2.23	✅
9.5	Over	44.6%	2.24	✅
9.5	Under	55.4%	1.81	✅
10.5	Over	35.0%	2.86	✅
10.5	Under	65.0%	1.54	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	48.8%	2.05	✅
3.5	Under	51.2%	1.95	✅
4.5	Over	29.6%	3.37	✅
4.5	Under	70.4%	1.42	✅
5.5	Over	15.8%	6.33	✅
5.5	Under	84.2%	1.19	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	86.2%	1.16	✅
7.5	Under	13.9%	7.22	✅
8.5	Over	80.1%	1.25	✅
8.5	Under	19.9%	5.01	✅
9.5	Over	73.0%	1.37	✅
9.5	Under	27.0%	3.71	✅
10.5	Over	65.3%	1.53	✅
10.5	Under	34.7%	2.88	✅
11.5	Over	57.4%	1.74	✅
11.5	Under	42.6%	2.35	✅
12.5	Over	49.4%	2.02	✅
12.5	Under	50.6%	1.98	✅
13.5	Over	41.8%	2.39	✅
13.5	Under	58.2%	1.72	✅
14.5	Over	34.8%	2.88	✅
14.5	Under	65.2%	1.53	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	89.0%	1.12	✅
7.5	Under	11.0%	9.08	✅
8.5	Over	83.8%	1.19	✅
8.5	Under	16.2%	6.17	✅
9.5	Over	77.6%	1.29	✅
9.5	Under	22.4%	4.47	✅
10.5	Over	70.7%	1.42	✅
10.5	Under	29.3%	3.41	✅
11.5	Over	63.2%	1.58	✅
11.5	Under	36.8%	2.72	✅
12.5	Over	55.6%	1.80	✅
12.5	Under	44.4%	2.25	✅
13.5	Over	48.1%	2.08	✅
13.5	Under	51.9%	1.93	✅
14.5	Over	40.9%	2.44	✅
14.5	Under	59.1%	1.69	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	72.7%	1.38	✅
2.5	Under	27.3%	3.66	✅
3.5	Over	52.1%	1.92	✅
3.5	Under	47.9%	2.09	✅
4.5	Over	32.7%	3.06	✅
4.5	Under	67.3%	1.49	✅
5.5	Over	18.0%	5.54	✅
5.5	Under	82.0%	1.22	✅
6.5	Over	8.8%	11.32	✅
6.5	Under	91.2%	1.10	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	91.2%	1.10	✅
2.5	Under	8.8%	11.37	✅
3.5	Over	79.9%	1.25	✅
3.5	Under	20.1%	4.98	✅
4.5	Over	64.3%	1.55	✅
4.5	Under	35.6%	2.81	✅
5.5	Over	47.2%	2.12	✅
5.5	Under	52.8%	1.90	✅
6.5	Over	31.5%	3.17	✅
6.5	Under	68.5%	1.46	✅