Serie A· Brazil

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense

Agendado

06/09, 19:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate3.23betclic_frSTALE

Casa1.69betclic_frSTALE

Fora4.20betclic_frSTALE

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	38.0%	2.63	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Fora	17.1%	5.84	-21.2%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Fora	40.8%	2.45	+87.5%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	29.8%	3.36	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Empate	24.0%	4.16	-18.3%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Empate	26.5%	3.77	-9.9%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	32.3%	3.10	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Casa	58.8%	1.70	+0.0%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Casa	32.7%	3.06	-44.4%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	45.7%	2.19	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Não	56.1%	1.78	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	48.0%	2.08	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	54.3%	1.84	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Sim	43.9%	2.28	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	52.0%	1.92	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	47.9%	2.09	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Over	44.4%	2.25	-11.3%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	47.2%	2.12	-5.5%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	52.1%	1.92	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Under	55.6%	1.80	-5.4%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	52.8%	1.90	-10.3%	31/08, 20:26	STALE

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	38.0%	28.9%	39.4%	9.0%	✅	25 / 25
1X2 Fora	ml	17.1%	39.4%	39.4%	22.3%	✅	25 / 25
1X2 Fora	poisson	40.8%	27.6%	39.4%	13.2%	✅	25 / 25
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	29.8%	25.3%	28.1%	4.5%	✅	25 / 25
1X2 Empate	ml	24.0%	28.1%	28.1%	4.1%	✅	25 / 25
1X2 Empate	poisson	26.5%	26.9%	28.1%	0.4%	✅	25 / 25
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	32.3%	45.8%	32.5%	13.5%	✅	25 / 25
1X2 Casa	ml	58.8%	32.5%	32.5%	26.3%	✅	25 / 25
1X2 Casa	poisson	32.7%	45.5%	32.5%	12.8%	✅	25 / 25
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	45.7%	52.1%	46.8%	6.4%	✅	25 / 25
Ambas Marcam Não	ml	56.1%	46.8%	46.8%	9.3%	✅	25 / 25
Ambas Marcam Não	poisson	48.0%	50.9%	46.8%	2.9%	✅	25 / 25
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	54.3%	47.9%	53.2%	6.4%	✅	25 / 25
Ambas Marcam Sim	ml	43.9%	53.2%	53.2%	9.3%	✅	25 / 25
Ambas Marcam Sim	poisson	52.0%	49.1%	53.2%	2.9%	✅	25 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	47.9%	45.8%	47.6%	2.1%	✅	25 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	44.4%	47.6%	47.6%	3.2%	✅	25 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	47.2%	46.1%	47.6%	1.1%	✅	25 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	52.1%	54.2%	52.4%	2.1%	✅	25 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	55.6%	52.4%	52.4%	3.2%	✅	25 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	52.8%	53.9%	52.4%	1.1%	✅	25 / 25

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	ml	25	REJECTED EV (-0.2123) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Fora	poisson	62	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	ml	40	REJECTED EV (-0.1827) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	poisson	44	REJECTED EV (-0.0992) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	ml	25	REJECTED EV (0.0002) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	poisson	28	REJECTED EV (-0.4435) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	41	REJECTED EV (-0.1129) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	44	REJECTED EV (-0.0552) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	41	REJECTED EV (-0.0540) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	44	REJECTED EV (-0.1031) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)

Contexto de Equipa

Cruzeiro

PPG (atual)

1.56

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

52.0

Forma (casa/fora)

56.4 / 47.2

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

25 / 0

Context Score*

53.3

Data Quality

100%

Atletico Paranaense

PPG (atual)

1.80

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

60.0

Forma (casa/fora)

71.8 / 47.2

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

25 / 0

Context Score*

60.5

Data Quality

100%

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Cruzeiro

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Atletico Paranaense

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	62.3%	1.61	✅
8.5	Under	37.8%	2.65	✅
9.5	Over	52.3%	1.91	✅
9.5	Under	47.7%	2.10	✅
10.5	Over	42.7%	2.34	✅
10.5	Under	57.3%	1.75	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	76.2%	1.31	✅
3.5	Under	23.8%	4.20	✅
4.5	Over	59.4%	1.68	✅
4.5	Under	40.6%	2.46	✅
5.5	Over	41.9%	2.38	✅
5.5	Under	58.1%	1.72	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	93.0%	1.07	⚠️
7.5	Under	7.0%	14.39	⚠️
8.5	Over	89.4%	1.12	✅
8.5	Under	10.6%	9.42	✅
9.5	Over	84.8%	1.18	✅
9.5	Under	15.2%	6.58	✅
10.5	Over	79.3%	1.26	✅
10.5	Under	20.6%	4.84	✅
11.5	Over	73.2%	1.37	✅
11.5	Under	26.8%	3.73	✅
12.5	Over	66.6%	1.50	✅
12.5	Under	33.4%	2.99	✅
13.5	Over	59.7%	1.68	✅
13.5	Under	40.3%	2.48	✅
14.5	Over	52.7%	1.90	✅
14.5	Under	47.3%	2.11	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	68.2%	1.47	✅
7.5	Under	31.8%	3.15	✅
8.5	Over	58.4%	1.71	✅
8.5	Under	41.6%	2.41	✅
9.5	Over	48.7%	2.05	✅
9.5	Under	51.3%	1.95	✅
10.5	Over	39.5%	2.54	✅
10.5	Under	60.6%	1.65	✅
11.5	Over	31.2%	3.21	✅
11.5	Under	68.8%	1.45	✅
12.5	Over	24.0%	4.16	✅
12.5	Under	76.0%	1.32	✅
13.5	Over	18.1%	5.53	✅
13.5	Under	81.9%	1.22	✅
14.5	Over	13.4%	7.49	✅
14.5	Under	86.7%	1.15	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	87.0%	1.15	✅
2.5	Under	13.0%	7.68	✅
3.5	Over	72.6%	1.38	✅
3.5	Under	27.4%	3.65	✅
4.5	Over	54.8%	1.82	✅
4.5	Under	45.2%	2.21	✅
5.5	Over	37.3%	2.68	✅
5.5	Under	62.7%	1.59	✅
6.5	Over	22.9%	4.38	✅
6.5	Under	77.1%	1.30	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	74.1%	1.35	✅
2.5	Under	25.9%	3.86	✅
3.5	Over	53.9%	1.86	✅
3.5	Under	46.1%	2.17	✅
4.5	Over	34.4%	2.91	✅
4.5	Under	65.6%	1.52	✅
5.5	Over	19.4%	5.17	✅
5.5	Under	80.7%	1.24	✅
6.5	Over	9.7%	10.34	✅
6.5	Under	90.3%	1.11	✅