Serie A· Brazil

Internacional vs Santos

Agendado

06/09, 19:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate3.28betclic_frSTALE

Fora3.80betclic_frSTALE

Casa1.75betclic_frSTALE

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	28.0%	3.58	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Fora	18.8%	5.32	-24.8%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Fora	31.9%	3.14	+27.4%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	30.1%	3.32	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Empate	23.5%	4.26	-20.1%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Empate	26.4%	3.78	-10.1%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	41.9%	2.39	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Casa	57.7%	1.73	+3.9%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Casa	41.7%	2.40	-24.9%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	48.2%	2.07	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Não	51.7%	1.93	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	48.1%	2.08	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	51.8%	1.93	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Sim	48.3%	2.07	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	51.9%	1.93	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	45.3%	2.21	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Over	48.7%	2.05	-9.9%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	47.2%	2.12	-12.6%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	54.7%	1.83	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Under	51.3%	1.95	-5.1%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	52.8%	1.90	-2.4%	31/08, 20:26	STALE

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	28.0%	25.3%	29.9%	2.6%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Fora	ml	18.8%	29.9%	29.9%	11.1%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Fora	poisson	31.9%	23.4%	29.9%	8.5%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	30.1%	25.0%	28.3%	5.2%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Empate	ml	23.5%	28.3%	28.3%	4.8%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Empate	poisson	26.4%	26.8%	28.3%	0.4%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	41.9%	49.7%	41.8%	7.8%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Casa	ml	57.7%	41.8%	41.8%	15.9%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Casa	poisson	41.7%	49.8%	41.8%	8.1%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	48.2%	49.9%	48.2%	1.7%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	ml	51.7%	48.2%	48.2%	3.5%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	poisson	48.1%	50.0%	48.2%	1.9%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	51.8%	50.1%	51.8%	1.7%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	ml	48.3%	51.8%	51.8%	3.5%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	poisson	51.9%	50.0%	51.8%	1.9%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	45.3%	48.0%	46.3%	2.6%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	48.7%	46.3%	46.3%	2.4%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	47.2%	47.0%	46.3%	0.2%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	54.7%	52.0%	53.7%	2.6%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	51.3%	53.7%	53.7%	2.4%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	52.8%	53.0%	53.7%	0.2%	✅	25 / 24

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	ml	30	REJECTED EV (-0.2481) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Fora	poisson	66	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	ml	39	REJECTED EV (-0.2014) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	poisson	44	REJECTED EV (-0.1011) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	ml	30	REJECTED EV (0.0388) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	poisson	34	REJECTED EV (-0.2493) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	42	REJECTED EV (-0.0992) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	45	REJECTED EV (-0.1263) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	42	REJECTED EV (-0.0508) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	45	REJECTED EV (-0.0237) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)

Contexto de Equipa

Internacional

PPG (atual)

1.00

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

33.3

Forma (casa/fora)

35.9 / 30.6

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

25 / 0

Context Score*

44.6

Data Quality

100%

Santos

PPG (atual)

1.21

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

40.3

Forma (casa/fora)

48.7 / 30.3

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

46.4

Data Quality

100%

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Internacional

Jogador	Pos.	Jogos	Titular	Min.	Golos	Remates	SOT	Min. Esp.	Disponibilidade
Matheus Cunha	N/A	1	1	90	0	0	0	90'	unknown
Braian Aguirre	N/A	1	1	90	0	1	0	90'	unknown
Félix Torres	N/A	1	1	90	0	1	1	90'	unknown
Bruno Henrique	N/A	1	1	90	0	1	0	90'	unknown
Ronaldo	N/A	1	1	90	0	0	0	90'	unknown
Vitinho	N/A	1	1	87	1	3	1	87'	unknown
Matheus Bahia	N/A	1	1	76	0	0	0	76'	unknown
Alan Patrick	N/A	1	1	76	1	1	1	76'	unknown
Alexandro Bernabei	N/A	1	1	64	0	1	0	64'	unknown
Thiago Maia	N/A	1	1	64	0	0	0	64'	unknown
Calebe Gonçalves	N/A	1	0	26	0	0	0	26'	unknown
Jose Juninho	N/A	1	0	14	0	1	0	14'	unknown
Johan Carbonero	N/A	1	0	14	0	1	0	14'	unknown
Niclas Eliasson	N/A	1	0	9	0	0	0	9'	unknown
Anthoni	N/A	1	0	0	0	0	0	0'	unknown

Santos

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	69.4%	1.44	✅
8.5	Under	30.6%	3.27	✅
9.5	Over	60.2%	1.66	✅
9.5	Under	39.8%	2.51	✅
10.5	Over	50.8%	1.97	✅
10.5	Under	49.2%	2.03	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	83.0%	1.21	✅
3.5	Under	17.0%	5.89	✅
4.5	Over	68.8%	1.46	✅
4.5	Under	31.3%	3.20	✅
5.5	Over	52.2%	1.92	✅
5.5	Under	47.8%	2.09	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	95.6%	1.05	⚠️
7.5	Under	4.4%	22.62	⚠️
8.5	Over	93.1%	1.07	⚠️
8.5	Under	6.9%	14.50	⚠️
9.5	Over	89.8%	1.11	✅
9.5	Under	10.2%	9.85	✅
10.5	Over	85.8%	1.17	✅
10.5	Under	14.2%	7.05	✅
11.5	Over	81.0%	1.23	✅
11.5	Under	19.0%	5.27	✅
12.5	Over	75.6%	1.32	✅
12.5	Under	24.4%	4.10	✅
13.5	Over	69.7%	1.43	✅
13.5	Under	30.3%	3.30	✅
14.5	Over	63.5%	1.57	✅
14.5	Under	36.5%	2.74	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	75.1%	1.33	✅
7.5	Under	24.9%	4.01	✅
8.5	Over	66.3%	1.51	✅
8.5	Under	33.7%	2.97	✅
9.5	Over	57.2%	1.75	✅
9.5	Under	42.8%	2.34	✅
10.5	Over	48.1%	2.08	✅
10.5	Under	51.9%	1.93	✅
11.5	Over	39.5%	2.53	✅
11.5	Under	60.5%	1.65	✅
12.5	Over	31.7%	3.15	✅
12.5	Under	68.3%	1.46	✅
13.5	Over	24.9%	4.02	✅
13.5	Under	75.1%	1.33	✅
14.5	Over	19.2%	5.22	✅
14.5	Under	80.8%	1.24	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	86.5%	1.16	✅
2.5	Under	13.5%	7.39	✅
3.5	Over	71.7%	1.39	✅
3.5	Under	28.3%	3.54	✅
4.5	Over	53.8%	1.86	✅
4.5	Under	46.2%	2.16	✅
5.5	Over	36.3%	2.76	✅
5.5	Under	63.7%	1.57	✅
6.5	Over	22.0%	4.54	✅
6.5	Under	78.0%	1.28	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	63.2%	1.58	✅
2.5	Under	36.8%	2.71	✅
3.5	Over	41.0%	2.44	✅
3.5	Under	59.0%	1.70	✅
4.5	Over	22.9%	4.36	✅
4.5	Under	77.0%	1.30	✅
5.5	Over	11.2%	8.93	✅
5.5	Under	88.8%	1.13	✅
6.5	Over	4.8%	20.78	⚠️
6.5	Under	95.2%	1.05	⚠️