Serie A· Brazil

Coritiba vs Mirassol

Agendado

06/09, 14:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate3.03betclic_frSTALE

Fora3.08betclic_frSTALE

Casa2.05betclic_frSTALE

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	19.8%	5.05	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Fora	15.5%	6.45	-49.7%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Fora	20.2%	4.95	-34.5%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	27.9%	3.59	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Empate	20.4%	4.90	-34.1%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Empate	23.7%	4.23	-23.6%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	52.3%	1.91	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Casa	64.1%	1.56	+44.8%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Casa	56.1%	1.78	+26.9%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	49.9%	2.01	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Não	48.7%	2.06	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	50.0%	2.00	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	50.1%	1.99	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Sim	51.3%	1.95	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	50.0%	2.00	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	47.1%	2.13	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Over	56.2%	1.78	+25.9%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	49.9%	2.01	+11.7%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	52.9%	1.89	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Under	43.8%	2.28	-28.6%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	50.1%	1.99	-18.3%	31/08, 20:26	STALE

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	19.8%	17.9%	20.0%	1.9%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Fora	ml	15.5%	20.0%	20.0%	4.5%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Fora	poisson	20.2%	17.7%	20.0%	2.6%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	27.9%	22.0%	25.8%	5.8%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	ml	20.4%	25.8%	25.8%	5.4%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	poisson	23.7%	24.1%	25.8%	0.5%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	52.3%	60.1%	54.2%	7.8%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	ml	64.1%	54.2%	54.2%	9.9%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	poisson	56.1%	58.2%	54.2%	2.1%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	49.9%	49.3%	49.9%	0.5%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	ml	48.7%	49.9%	49.9%	1.3%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	poisson	50.0%	49.3%	49.9%	0.7%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	50.1%	50.7%	50.1%	0.5%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	ml	51.3%	50.1%	50.1%	1.3%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	poisson	50.0%	50.7%	50.1%	0.7%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	47.1%	53.0%	48.5%	6.0%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	56.2%	48.5%	48.5%	7.7%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	49.9%	51.6%	48.5%	1.8%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	52.9%	47.0%	51.5%	6.0%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	43.8%	51.5%	51.5%	7.7%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	50.1%	48.4%	51.5%	1.8%	✅	24 / 24

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	ml	39	REJECTED EV (-0.4974) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Fora	poisson	42	REJECTED EV (-0.3451) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	ml	38	REJECTED EV (-0.3409) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	poisson	44	REJECTED EV (-0.2359) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	ml	67	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	poisson	74	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	65	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	56	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	35	REJECTED EV (-0.2861) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	43	REJECTED EV (-0.1827) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)

Contexto de Equipa

Coritiba

PPG (atual)

1.42

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

47.2

Forma (casa/fora)

50.0 / 44.4

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

50.5

Data Quality

100%

Mirassol

PPG (atual)

1.04

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

34.7

Forma (casa/fora)

48.7 / 18.2

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

41.9

Data Quality

100%

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Coritiba

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Mirassol

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	60.1%	1.66	✅
8.5	Under	39.9%	2.51	✅
9.5	Over	49.9%	2.00	✅
9.5	Under	50.1%	2.00	✅
10.5	Over	40.2%	2.49	✅
10.5	Under	59.8%	1.67	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	61.8%	1.62	✅
3.5	Under	38.2%	2.62	✅
4.5	Over	42.4%	2.36	✅
4.5	Under	57.6%	1.74	✅
5.5	Over	25.9%	3.86	✅
5.5	Under	74.1%	1.35	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	86.4%	1.16	✅
7.5	Under	13.6%	7.34	✅
8.5	Over	80.3%	1.24	✅
8.5	Under	19.7%	5.09	✅
9.5	Over	73.4%	1.36	✅
9.5	Under	26.6%	3.76	✅
10.5	Over	65.8%	1.52	✅
10.5	Under	34.3%	2.92	✅
11.5	Over	57.8%	1.73	✅
11.5	Under	42.2%	2.37	✅
12.5	Over	49.9%	2.00	✅
12.5	Under	50.1%	2.00	✅
13.5	Over	42.3%	2.37	✅
13.5	Under	57.7%	1.73	✅
14.5	Over	35.2%	2.84	✅
14.5	Under	64.8%	1.54	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	90.0%	1.11	✅
7.5	Under	10.0%	10.05	✅
8.5	Over	85.2%	1.17	✅
8.5	Under	14.8%	6.77	✅
9.5	Over	79.4%	1.26	✅
9.5	Under	20.6%	4.86	✅
10.5	Over	72.8%	1.37	✅
10.5	Under	27.2%	3.68	✅
11.5	Over	65.6%	1.52	✅
11.5	Under	34.4%	2.91	✅
12.5	Over	58.2%	1.72	✅
12.5	Under	41.8%	2.39	✅
13.5	Over	50.8%	1.97	✅
13.5	Under	49.2%	2.03	✅
14.5	Over	43.6%	2.29	✅
14.5	Under	56.4%	1.77	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	73.8%	1.35	✅
2.5	Under	26.2%	3.82	✅
3.5	Over	53.6%	1.87	✅
3.5	Under	46.4%	2.15	✅
4.5	Over	34.1%	2.93	✅
4.5	Under	65.9%	1.52	✅
5.5	Over	19.1%	5.23	✅
5.5	Under	80.9%	1.24	✅
6.5	Over	9.5%	10.51	✅
6.5	Under	90.5%	1.10	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	77.4%	1.29	✅
2.5	Under	22.6%	4.43	✅
3.5	Over	58.3%	1.72	✅
3.5	Under	41.7%	2.40	✅
4.5	Over	38.8%	2.58	✅
4.5	Under	61.2%	1.63	✅
5.5	Over	22.9%	4.38	✅
5.5	Under	77.1%	1.30	✅
6.5	Over	12.0%	8.35	✅
6.5	Under	88.0%	1.14	✅