Serie A· Brazil

Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama

Agendado

06/09, 00:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate3.22betclic_frSTALE

Fora3.98betclic_frSTALE

Casa1.73betclic_frSTALE

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	13.1%	7.65	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Fora	16.2%	6.16	-35.1%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Fora	14.8%	6.76	-40.8%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	21.3%	4.69	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Empate	22.3%	4.48	-24.1%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Empate	19.1%	5.25	-35.2%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	65.6%	1.52	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Casa	61.4%	1.63	+10.6%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Casa	66.2%	1.51	+19.1%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	45.5%	2.20	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Não	53.1%	1.88	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	45.7%	2.19	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	54.5%	1.84	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Sim	46.9%	2.13	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	54.3%	1.84	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	60.3%	1.66	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Over	49.4%	2.02	-1.1%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	60.9%	1.64	+21.9%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	39.7%	2.52	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Under	50.6%	1.98	-14.0%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	39.1%	2.56	-33.6%	31/08, 20:26	STALE

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	13.1%	15.5%	13.9%	2.4%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Fora	ml	16.2%	13.9%	13.9%	2.3%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Fora	poisson	14.8%	14.6%	13.9%	0.1%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	21.3%	20.7%	20.2%	0.6%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Empate	ml	22.3%	20.2%	20.2%	2.1%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Empate	poisson	19.1%	21.8%	20.2%	2.8%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	65.6%	63.8%	65.9%	1.8%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Casa	ml	61.4%	65.9%	65.9%	4.4%	✅	25 / 24
1X2 Casa	poisson	66.2%	63.5%	65.9%	2.6%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	45.5%	49.4%	45.6%	3.9%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	ml	53.1%	45.6%	45.6%	7.5%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	poisson	45.7%	49.3%	45.6%	3.6%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	54.5%	50.6%	54.4%	3.9%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	ml	46.9%	54.4%	54.4%	7.5%	✅	25 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	poisson	54.3%	50.7%	54.4%	3.6%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	60.3%	55.2%	60.6%	5.1%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	49.4%	60.6%	60.6%	11.2%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	60.9%	54.9%	60.6%	6.1%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	39.7%	44.8%	39.4%	5.1%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	50.6%	39.4%	39.4%	11.2%	✅	25 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	39.1%	45.1%	39.4%	6.1%	✅	25 / 24

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	ml	42	REJECTED EV (-0.3509) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Fora	poisson	45	REJECTED EV (-0.4081) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	ml	42	REJECTED EV (-0.2409) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	poisson	41	REJECTED EV (-0.3523) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	ml	51	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	poisson	64	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	30	REJECTED EV (-0.0115) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	62	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	30	REJECTED EV (-0.1402) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	37	REJECTED EV (-0.3359) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)

Contexto de Equipa

Fluminense

PPG (atual)

1.68

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

56.0

Forma (casa/fora)

76.9 / 33.3

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

25 / 0

Context Score*

59.3

Data Quality

100%

Vasco DA Gama

PPG (atual)

1.04

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

34.7

Forma (casa/fora)

51.3 / 15.2

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

41.6

Data Quality

100%

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Fluminense

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Vasco DA Gama

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	55.9%	1.79	⚠️
8.5	Under	44.1%	2.27	⚠️
9.5	Over	45.5%	2.20	⚠️
9.5	Under	54.5%	1.83	⚠️
10.5	Over	35.8%	2.79	✅
10.5	Under	64.2%	1.56	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	66.3%	1.51	✅
3.5	Under	33.7%	2.97	✅
4.5	Over	47.4%	2.11	✅
4.5	Under	52.6%	1.90	✅
5.5	Over	30.3%	3.30	✅
5.5	Under	69.7%	1.43	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	93.4%	1.07	⚠️
7.5	Under	6.6%	15.23	⚠️
8.5	Over	89.9%	1.11	✅
8.5	Under	10.1%	9.94	✅
9.5	Over	85.5%	1.17	✅
9.5	Under	14.5%	6.91	✅
10.5	Over	80.3%	1.25	✅
10.5	Under	19.7%	5.07	✅
11.5	Over	74.3%	1.35	✅
11.5	Under	25.7%	3.89	✅
12.5	Over	67.8%	1.48	✅
12.5	Under	32.2%	3.10	✅
13.5	Over	61.0%	1.64	✅
13.5	Under	39.0%	2.56	✅
14.5	Over	54.1%	1.85	✅
14.5	Under	45.9%	2.18	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	90.6%	1.10	✅
7.5	Under	9.4%	10.63	✅
8.5	Over	86.0%	1.16	✅
8.5	Under	14.0%	7.13	✅
9.5	Over	80.3%	1.25	✅
9.5	Under	19.7%	5.09	✅
10.5	Over	73.9%	1.35	✅
10.5	Under	26.1%	3.83	✅
11.5	Over	66.9%	1.49	✅
11.5	Under	33.1%	3.02	✅
12.5	Over	59.6%	1.68	✅
12.5	Under	40.4%	2.47	✅
13.5	Over	52.2%	1.92	✅
13.5	Under	47.8%	2.09	✅
14.5	Over	45.0%	2.22	✅
14.5	Under	55.0%	1.82	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	96.5%	1.04	⚠️
2.5	Under	3.5%	28.54	⚠️
3.5	Over	90.6%	1.10	✅
3.5	Under	9.4%	10.62	✅
4.5	Over	80.6%	1.24	✅
4.5	Under	19.4%	5.15	✅
5.5	Over	67.0%	1.49	✅
5.5	Under	33.0%	3.03	✅
6.5	Over	51.6%	1.94	✅
6.5	Under	48.4%	2.07	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	87.2%	1.15	✅
2.5	Under	12.8%	7.81	✅
3.5	Over	72.9%	1.37	✅
3.5	Under	27.1%	3.69	✅
4.5	Over	55.2%	1.81	✅
4.5	Under	44.8%	2.23	✅
5.5	Over	37.7%	2.65	✅
5.5	Under	62.3%	1.60	✅
6.5	Over	23.2%	4.31	✅
6.5	Under	76.8%	1.30	✅