Serie A· Brazil

RB Bragantino vs Bahia

Agendado

05/09, 19:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

Sem odds Betclic disponíveis para este jogo.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	26.0%	3.85	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Fora	43.0%	2.32	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Fora	30.1%	3.32	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	30.8%	3.24	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Empate	22.6%	4.42	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Empate	28.3%	3.53	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	43.2%	2.31	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Casa	34.3%	2.91	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Casa	41.6%	2.41	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	51.2%	1.95	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Não	33.8%	2.96	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	54.2%	1.84	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	48.8%	2.05	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Sim	66.2%	1.51	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	45.8%	2.19	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	42.0%	2.38	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Over	65.5%	1.53	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	39.8%	2.51	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	58.0%	1.72	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Under	34.5%	2.90	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	60.2%	1.66	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	26.0%	36.6%	28.1%	10.6%	✅	24 / 25
1X2 Fora	ml	43.0%	28.1%	28.1%	15.0%	✅	24 / 25
1X2 Fora	poisson	30.1%	34.5%	28.1%	4.4%	✅	24 / 25
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	30.8%	25.5%	29.6%	5.4%	✅	24 / 25
1X2 Empate	ml	22.6%	29.6%	29.6%	6.9%	✅	24 / 25
1X2 Empate	poisson	28.3%	26.7%	29.6%	1.6%	✅	24 / 25
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	43.2%	37.9%	42.4%	5.3%	✅	24 / 25
1X2 Casa	ml	34.3%	42.4%	42.4%	8.1%	✅	24 / 25
1X2 Casa	poisson	41.6%	38.8%	42.4%	2.8%	✅	24 / 25
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	51.2%	44.0%	52.7%	7.2%	✅	24 / 25
Ambas Marcam Não	ml	33.8%	52.7%	52.7%	18.9%	✅	24 / 25
Ambas Marcam Não	poisson	54.2%	42.5%	52.7%	11.7%	✅	24 / 25
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	48.8%	56.0%	47.3%	7.2%	✅	24 / 25
Ambas Marcam Sim	ml	66.2%	47.3%	47.3%	18.9%	✅	24 / 25
Ambas Marcam Sim	poisson	45.8%	57.5%	47.3%	11.7%	✅	24 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	42.0%	52.6%	40.9%	10.6%	✅	24 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	65.5%	40.9%	40.9%	24.6%	✅	24 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	39.8%	53.7%	40.9%	13.9%	✅	24 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	58.0%	47.4%	59.1%	10.6%	✅	24 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	34.5%	59.1%	59.1%	24.6%	✅	24 / 25
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	60.2%	46.3%	59.1%	13.9%	✅	24 / 25

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Nenhuma seleção com odds Betclic suficientes para classificação Safe Value / Top Pick neste jogo.

Contexto de Equipa

RB Bragantino

PPG (atual)

1.46

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

48.6

Forma (casa/fora)

55.6 / 41.7

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

52.7

Data Quality

100%

Bahia

PPG (atual)

1.60

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

53.3

Forma (casa/fora)

53.8 / 52.8

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

25 / 0

Context Score*

56.3

Data Quality

100%

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

RB Bragantino

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Bahia

Jogador	Pos.	Jogos	Titular	Min.	Golos	Remates	SOT	Min. Esp.	Disponibilidade
Ronaldo	N/A	1	1	90	0	0	0	90'	unknown
David Duarte	N/A	1	1	90	0	1	0	90'	unknown
Santiago Ramos Mingo	N/A	1	1	90	0	0	0	90'	unknown
Luciano Juba	N/A	1	1	90	0	0	0	90'	unknown
Nicolás Acevedo	N/A	1	1	90	0	0	0	90'	unknown
Alejo Véliz	N/A	1	1	90	0	2	1	90'	unknown
Rodrigo Nestor	N/A	1	1	84	0	0	0	84'	unknown
Erick Pulga	N/A	1	1	84	2	4	3	84'	unknown
Román Gómez	N/A	1	1	76	0	0	0	76'	unknown
Erick	N/A	1	1	56	1	1	1	56'	unknown
Cristian Olivera	N/A	1	1	56	0	1	1	56'	unknown
Michel Araújo	N/A	1	0	34	0	0	0	34'	unknown
Ademir	N/A	1	0	34	0	1	0	34'	unknown
Marcos Victor	N/A	1	0	14	0	0	0	14'	unknown
Ruan Pablo	N/A	1	0	12	0	0	0	12'	unknown

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	79.6%	1.26	✅
8.5	Under	20.4%	4.90	✅
9.5	Over	72.0%	1.39	✅
9.5	Under	28.0%	3.57	✅
10.5	Over	63.6%	1.57	✅
10.5	Under	36.4%	2.75	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	81.9%	1.22	✅
3.5	Under	18.1%	5.54	✅
4.5	Over	67.2%	1.49	✅
4.5	Under	32.8%	3.05	✅
5.5	Over	50.4%	1.98	✅
5.5	Under	49.6%	2.02	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	96.9%	1.03	⚠️
7.5	Under	3.1%	32.30	⚠️
8.5	Over	95.3%	1.05	⚠️
8.5	Under	4.7%	21.34	⚠️
9.5	Over	93.1%	1.07	⚠️
9.5	Under	6.9%	14.56	⚠️
10.5	Over	90.3%	1.11	✅
10.5	Under	9.7%	10.31	✅
11.5	Over	86.8%	1.15	✅
11.5	Under	13.2%	7.58	✅
12.5	Over	82.7%	1.21	✅
12.5	Under	17.3%	5.77	✅
13.5	Over	78.0%	1.28	✅
13.5	Under	22.0%	4.54	✅
14.5	Over	72.8%	1.37	✅
14.5	Under	27.2%	3.68	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	82.8%	1.21	✅
7.5	Under	17.2%	5.83	✅
8.5	Over	75.8%	1.32	✅
8.5	Under	24.2%	4.13	✅
9.5	Over	68.0%	1.47	✅
9.5	Under	32.0%	3.12	✅
10.5	Over	59.6%	1.68	✅
10.5	Under	40.4%	2.48	✅
11.5	Over	51.3%	1.95	✅
11.5	Under	48.7%	2.05	✅
12.5	Over	43.2%	2.31	✅
12.5	Under	56.8%	1.76	✅
13.5	Over	35.7%	2.80	✅
13.5	Under	64.3%	1.55	✅
14.5	Over	28.9%	3.46	✅
14.5	Under	71.0%	1.41	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	94.3%	1.06	⚠️
2.5	Under	5.7%	17.48	⚠️
3.5	Over	85.8%	1.17	✅
3.5	Under	14.2%	7.06	✅
4.5	Over	73.0%	1.37	✅
4.5	Under	27.1%	3.70	✅
5.5	Over	57.2%	1.75	✅
5.5	Under	42.8%	2.34	✅
6.5	Over	41.1%	2.43	✅
6.5	Under	58.9%	1.70	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	76.6%	1.31	✅
2.5	Under	23.4%	4.27	✅
3.5	Over	57.2%	1.75	✅
3.5	Under	42.8%	2.33	✅
4.5	Over	37.6%	2.66	✅
4.5	Under	62.4%	1.60	✅
5.5	Over	21.9%	4.57	✅
5.5	Under	78.1%	1.28	✅
6.5	Over	11.3%	8.82	✅
6.5	Under	88.7%	1.13	✅