Serie A· Brazil

Flamengo vs Mirassol

Agendado

02/09, 22:30

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate5.10betclic_frSTALE

Fora8.50betclic_frSTALE

Casa1.21betclic_frSTALE

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	5.5%	18.23	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Fora	14.5%	6.88	+16.4%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Fora	5.8%	17.18	-53.4%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	14.6%	6.85	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Empate	18.5%	5.40	-9.3%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Empate	12.2%	8.22	-40.4%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	79.9%	1.25	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Casa	66.9%	1.49	-14.3%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Casa	82.0%	1.22	+5.0%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	55.9%	1.79	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Não	44.4%	2.25	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	56.7%	1.76	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	44.1%	2.27	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Sim	55.6%	1.80	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	43.3%	2.31	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	64.1%	1.56	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Over	63.0%	1.59	-4.9%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	65.9%	1.52	-0.5%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	35.9%	2.78	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Under	37.0%	2.70	-23.0%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	34.1%	2.93	-29.0%	31/08, 20:26	STALE

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	5.5%	10.2%	5.7%	4.7%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Fora	ml	14.5%	5.7%	5.7%	8.9%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Fora	poisson	5.8%	10.0%	5.7%	4.2%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	14.6%	15.3%	13.4%	0.7%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	ml	18.5%	13.4%	13.4%	5.1%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	poisson	12.2%	16.6%	13.4%	4.4%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	79.9%	74.5%	81.0%	5.4%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	ml	66.9%	81.0%	81.0%	14.0%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	poisson	82.0%	73.4%	81.0%	8.6%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	55.9%	50.5%	56.3%	5.4%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	ml	44.4%	56.3%	56.3%	11.9%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	poisson	56.7%	50.2%	56.3%	6.5%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	44.1%	49.5%	43.7%	5.4%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	ml	55.6%	43.7%	43.7%	11.9%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	poisson	43.3%	49.8%	43.7%	6.5%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	64.1%	64.4%	65.0%	0.4%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	63.0%	65.0%	65.0%	2.0%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	65.9%	63.5%	65.0%	2.3%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	35.9%	35.6%	35.0%	0.4%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	37.0%	35.0%	35.0%	2.0%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	34.1%	36.5%	35.0%	2.3%	✅	24 / 24

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	ml	52	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Fora	poisson	39	REJECTED EV (-0.5343) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	ml	38	REJECTED EV (-0.0932) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	poisson	39	REJECTED EV (-0.4037) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	ml	26	REJECTED EV (-0.1431) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	poisson	39	REJECTED EV (0.0497) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	42	REJECTED EV (-0.0489) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	42	REJECTED EV (-0.0054) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	42	REJECTED EV (-0.2301) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	42	REJECTED EV (-0.2900) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)

Contexto de Equipa

Flamengo

PPG (atual)

2.00

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

66.7

Forma (casa/fora)

72.7 / 61.5

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

67.7

Data Quality

100%

Mirassol

PPG (atual)

1.04

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

34.7

Forma (casa/fora)

48.7 / 18.2

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

41.9

Data Quality

100%

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Flamengo

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Mirassol

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	52.6%	1.90	✅
8.5	Under	47.4%	2.11	✅
9.5	Over	42.2%	2.37	✅
9.5	Under	57.8%	1.73	✅
10.5	Over	32.7%	3.06	✅
10.5	Under	67.3%	1.49	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	63.0%	1.59	✅
3.5	Under	37.0%	2.70	✅
4.5	Over	43.7%	2.29	✅
4.5	Under	56.3%	1.78	✅
5.5	Over	27.0%	3.71	✅
5.5	Under	73.0%	1.37	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	96.4%	1.04	⚠️
7.5	Under	3.6%	28.13	⚠️
8.5	Over	94.5%	1.06	⚠️
8.5	Under	5.5%	18.13	⚠️
9.5	Over	91.8%	1.09	✅
9.5	Under	8.2%	12.27	✅
10.5	Over	88.5%	1.13	✅
10.5	Under	11.5%	8.69	✅
11.5	Over	84.4%	1.18	✅
11.5	Under	15.6%	6.42	✅
12.5	Over	79.7%	1.25	✅
12.5	Under	20.3%	4.93	✅
13.5	Over	74.5%	1.34	✅
13.5	Under	25.6%	3.91	✅
14.5	Over	68.8%	1.45	✅
14.5	Under	31.2%	3.20	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	77.1%	1.30	✅
7.5	Under	22.9%	4.37	✅
8.5	Over	68.8%	1.45	✅
8.5	Under	31.2%	3.20	✅
9.5	Over	59.9%	1.67	✅
9.5	Under	40.1%	2.49	✅
10.5	Over	50.9%	1.96	✅
10.5	Under	49.1%	2.04	✅
11.5	Over	42.3%	2.36	✅
11.5	Under	57.7%	1.73	✅
12.5	Over	34.4%	2.91	✅
12.5	Under	65.6%	1.52	✅
13.5	Over	27.4%	3.65	✅
13.5	Under	72.6%	1.38	✅
14.5	Over	21.3%	4.68	✅
14.5	Under	78.6%	1.27	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	94.5%	1.06	⚠️
2.5	Under	5.5%	18.20	⚠️
3.5	Over	86.3%	1.16	✅
3.5	Under	13.7%	7.30	✅
4.5	Over	73.7%	1.36	✅
4.5	Under	26.3%	3.80	✅
5.5	Over	58.1%	1.72	✅
5.5	Under	41.9%	2.38	✅
6.5	Over	42.0%	2.38	✅
6.5	Under	58.0%	1.73	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	62.7%	1.60	✅
2.5	Under	37.3%	2.68	✅
3.5	Over	40.5%	2.47	✅
3.5	Under	59.6%	1.68	✅
4.5	Over	22.5%	4.45	✅
4.5	Under	77.5%	1.29	✅
5.5	Over	10.9%	9.17	✅
5.5	Under	89.1%	1.12	✅
6.5	Over	4.7%	21.48	⚠️
6.5	Under	95.3%	1.05	⚠️