Serie A· Brazil

Remo vs Coritiba

Agendado

31/08, 23:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate3.20betclic_frSTALE

Casa1.98betclic_frSTALE

Fora3.78betclic_frSTALE

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	33.8%	2.96	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Fora	19.0%	5.27	-23.1%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Fora	36.3%	2.75	+47.1%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	29.3%	3.41	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Empate	26.0%	3.85	-15.3%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Empate	26.2%	3.82	-14.6%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	36.9%	2.71	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	1X2	Casa	55.0%	1.82	+14.5%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	1X2	Casa	37.5%	2.67	-22.0%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	44.1%	2.27	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Não	58.1%	1.72	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	46.4%	2.15	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	55.9%	1.79	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Ambas Marcam	Sim	41.9%	2.39	—	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	53.6%	1.87	—	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	49.8%	2.01	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Over	40.0%	2.50	-12.8%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	49.0%	2.04	+6.7%	31/08, 20:26	STALE
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	50.2%	1.99	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
ml RESEARCH	Over/Under 2.5	Under	60.0%	1.67	-1.0%	31/08, 20:27	STALE
poisson HISTORICAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	51.0%	1.96	-15.8%	31/08, 20:26	STALE

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	33.8%	27.7%	35.1%	6.2%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Fora	ml	19.0%	35.1%	35.1%	16.1%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Fora	poisson	36.3%	26.4%	35.1%	9.9%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	29.3%	26.1%	27.8%	3.2%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	ml	26.0%	27.8%	27.8%	1.8%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Empate	poisson	26.2%	27.6%	27.8%	1.4%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	36.9%	46.3%	37.2%	9.4%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	ml	55.0%	37.2%	37.2%	17.8%	✅	24 / 24
1X2 Casa	poisson	37.5%	46.0%	37.2%	8.5%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	44.1%	52.3%	45.3%	8.1%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	ml	58.1%	45.3%	45.3%	12.8%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Não	poisson	46.4%	51.1%	45.3%	4.7%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	55.9%	47.7%	54.7%	8.1%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	ml	41.9%	54.7%	54.7%	12.8%	✅	24 / 24
Ambas Marcam Sim	poisson	53.6%	48.9%	54.7%	4.7%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	49.8%	44.5%	49.4%	5.3%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	40.0%	49.4%	49.4%	9.4%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	49.0%	44.9%	49.4%	4.0%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	50.2%	55.5%	50.6%	5.3%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	60.0%	50.6%	50.6%	9.4%	✅	24 / 24
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	51.0%	55.1%	50.6%	4.0%	✅	24 / 24

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	ml	25	REJECTED EV (-0.2309) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Fora	poisson	67	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	ml	43	REJECTED EV (-0.1530) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Empate	poisson	43	REJECTED EV (-0.1459) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	ml	42	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
1X2 Casa	poisson	34	REJECTED EV (-0.2203) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	ml	33	REJECTED EV (-0.1276) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	poisson	47	CAUTION NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available to check market plausibility (other bookmakers may have one; Betclic-only, no fallback, per spec)	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	ml	33	REJECTED EV (-0.0103) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	poisson	40	REJECTED EV (-0.1579) is below the value threshold	REJECTED NO_PREFERRED_BOOKMAKER_ODDS — no fresh Betclic quote available (other bookmakers may have one; a Safe Pick needs a real, current Betclic price — no fallback)

Contexto de Equipa

Remo

PPG (atual)

0.96

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

31.9

Forma (casa/fora)

42.4 / 23.1

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

45.0

Data Quality

100%

Coritiba

PPG (atual)

1.42

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

47.2

Forma (casa/fora)

50.0 / 44.4

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

24 / 0

Context Score*

55.5

Data Quality

100%

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Remo

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Coritiba

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	65.0%	1.54	✅
8.5	Under	35.0%	2.86	✅
9.5	Over	55.3%	1.81	⚠️
9.5	Under	44.7%	2.24	⚠️
10.5	Over	45.7%	2.19	⚠️
10.5	Under	54.3%	1.84	⚠️

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	45.5%	2.20	✅
3.5	Under	54.5%	1.83	✅
4.5	Over	26.7%	3.75	✅
4.5	Under	73.3%	1.36	✅
5.5	Over	13.7%	7.29	✅
5.5	Under	86.3%	1.16	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	94.7%	1.06	⚠️
7.5	Under	5.3%	18.94	⚠️
8.5	Over	91.8%	1.09	✅
8.5	Under	8.2%	12.21	✅
9.5	Over	88.0%	1.14	✅
9.5	Under	11.9%	8.37	✅
10.5	Over	83.5%	1.20	✅
10.5	Under	16.5%	6.05	✅
11.5	Over	78.1%	1.28	✅
11.5	Under	21.9%	4.58	✅
12.5	Over	72.2%	1.39	✅
12.5	Under	27.8%	3.60	✅
13.5	Over	65.9%	1.52	✅
13.5	Under	34.1%	2.93	✅
14.5	Over	59.3%	1.69	✅
14.5	Under	40.7%	2.46	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	68.1%	1.47	✅
7.5	Under	31.9%	3.13	✅
8.5	Over	58.3%	1.72	✅
8.5	Under	41.7%	2.40	✅
9.5	Over	48.5%	2.06	✅
9.5	Under	51.5%	1.94	✅
10.5	Over	39.3%	2.55	✅
10.5	Under	60.7%	1.65	✅
11.5	Over	31.0%	3.23	✅
11.5	Under	69.0%	1.45	✅
12.5	Over	23.9%	4.19	✅
12.5	Under	76.1%	1.31	✅
13.5	Over	18.0%	5.56	✅
13.5	Under	82.0%	1.22	✅
14.5	Over	13.2%	7.55	✅
14.5	Under	86.8%	1.15	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	85.5%	1.17	✅
2.5	Under	14.5%	6.88	✅
3.5	Over	70.1%	1.43	✅
3.5	Under	29.9%	3.35	✅
4.5	Over	51.8%	1.93	✅
4.5	Under	48.2%	2.08	✅
5.5	Over	34.4%	2.91	✅
5.5	Under	65.6%	1.52	✅
6.5	Over	20.5%	4.88	✅
6.5	Under	79.5%	1.26	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	66.7%	1.50	✅
2.5	Under	33.3%	3.00	✅
3.5	Over	44.9%	2.23	✅
3.5	Under	55.1%	1.81	✅
4.5	Over	26.2%	3.81	✅
4.5	Under	73.8%	1.35	✅
5.5	Over	13.4%	7.48	✅
5.5	Under	86.6%	1.15	✅
6.5	Over	6.0%	16.58	⚠️
6.5	Under	94.0%	1.06	⚠️