UEFA Champions League· World

Barcelona vs Feyenoord

Agendado

09/09, 16:45

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Fora16.25betclic_frFRESH

Casa1.09betclic_frFRESH

Empate9.75betclic_frFRESH

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	1.2%	82.76	-80.4%	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	1.5%	65.07	-85.0%	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	97.3%	1.03	+6.0%	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	5.3%	19.02	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	94.7%	1.05	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	100.0%	1.00	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	0.0%	8894.94	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	1.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	12 / 2 home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.012083 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	1.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	12 / 2 home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.015368 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	97.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	12 / 2 home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.972549 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	5.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	12 / 2 home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	94.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	12 / 2 home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	100.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	12 / 2 home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.999888 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	12 / 2 home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.000112 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	48	REJECTED home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.012083 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome EV (-0.8036) is below the value threshold	REJECTED home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.012083 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	48	REJECTED home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.015368 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome EV (-0.8502) is below the value threshold	REJECTED home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.015368 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	55	REJECTED home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.972549 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome	REJECTED home team has 12 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.972549 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome

Contexto de Equipa

Barcelona

PPG (atual)

2.17

PPG (histórico)

1.67

Forma recente

65.9

Forma (casa/fora)

66.7 / 77.8

Dias de descanso

147

Amostra (atual/hist.)

6 / 6

Context Score*

75.7

Data Quality

55%

availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

Feyenoord

PPG (atual)

0.00

PPG (histórico)

1.50

Forma recente

50.0

Forma (casa/fora)

N/A / N/A

Dias de descanso

N/A

Amostra (atual/hist.)

0 / 2

Context Score*

55.3

Data Quality

25%

availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
no current-season matches before as_of — context_score is a historical/neutral fallback
availability: no squad synced for this team

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Barcelona

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Feyenoord

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	45.3%	2.21	✅
8.5	Under	54.7%	1.83	✅
9.5	Over	35.6%	2.81	✅
9.5	Under	64.3%	1.55	✅
10.5	Over	27.2%	3.67	✅
10.5	Under	72.8%	1.37	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	63.7%	1.57	✅
3.5	Under	36.3%	2.75	✅
4.5	Over	44.5%	2.25	✅
4.5	Under	55.5%	1.80	✅
5.5	Over	27.7%	3.61	✅
5.5	Under	72.3%	1.38	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	93.7%	1.07	⚠️
7.5	Under	6.3%	15.92	⚠️
8.5	Over	91.5%	1.09	✅
8.5	Under	8.5%	11.70	✅
9.5	Over	88.6%	1.13	✅
9.5	Under	11.4%	8.80	✅
10.5	Over	85.3%	1.17	✅
10.5	Under	14.7%	6.80	✅
11.5	Over	81.4%	1.23	✅
11.5	Under	18.6%	5.39	✅
12.5	Over	77.2%	1.30	✅
12.5	Under	22.8%	4.38	✅
13.5	Over	72.5%	1.38	✅
13.5	Under	27.5%	3.64	✅
14.5	Over	67.6%	1.48	✅
14.5	Under	32.4%	3.09	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	61.7%	1.62	✅
7.5	Under	38.3%	2.61	✅
8.5	Over	52.5%	1.91	⚠️
8.5	Under	47.5%	2.10	⚠️
9.5	Over	43.6%	2.29	⚠️
9.5	Under	56.4%	1.77	⚠️
10.5	Over	35.5%	2.81	⚠️
10.5	Under	64.5%	1.55	⚠️
11.5	Over	28.4%	3.52	⚠️
11.5	Under	71.6%	1.40	⚠️
12.5	Over	22.3%	4.49	⚠️
12.5	Under	77.7%	1.29	⚠️
13.5	Over	17.2%	5.81	✅
13.5	Under	82.8%	1.21	✅
14.5	Over	13.1%	7.64	✅
14.5	Under	86.9%	1.15	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	93.1%	1.07	⚠️
2.5	Under	6.9%	14.46	⚠️
3.5	Over	86.6%	1.16	✅
3.5	Under	13.4%	7.44	✅
4.5	Over	78.1%	1.28	✅
4.5	Under	21.9%	4.57	✅
5.5	Over	68.5%	1.46	✅
5.5	Under	31.6%	3.17	✅
6.5	Over	58.3%	1.72	✅
6.5	Under	41.7%	2.40	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	66.7%	1.50	✅
2.5	Under	33.3%	3.00	✅
3.5	Over	49.5%	2.02	✅
3.5	Under	50.5%	1.98	✅
4.5	Over	34.3%	2.92	✅
4.5	Under	65.7%	1.52	✅
5.5	Over	22.5%	4.45	✅
5.5	Under	77.5%	1.29	✅
6.5	Over	14.0%	7.13	✅
6.5	Under	86.0%	1.16	✅