UEFA Champions League· World

Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal

Agendado

08/09, 19:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate3.98betclic_frFRESH

Fora4.10betclic_frFRESH

Casa1.74betclic_frFRESH

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	2.1%	48.04	-91.5%	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	7.3%	13.62	-70.8%	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	90.6%	1.10	+57.6%	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	57.7%	1.73	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	42.3%	2.37	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	79.2%	1.26	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	20.8%	4.81	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	2.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	10 / 8
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	7.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	10 / 8
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	90.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	10 / 8
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	57.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	10 / 8
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	42.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	10 / 8
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	79.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	10 / 8
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	20.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	10 / 8

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	49	REJECTED EV (-0.9147) is below the value threshold	REJECTED EV (-0.9147) is clearly negative (below -0.01)
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	49	REJECTED EV (-0.7078) is below the value threshold	REJECTED EV (-0.7078) is clearly negative (below -0.01)
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	83	HIGH_RISK model vs market-implied probability gap (0.331) is large (>= 0.3)	WATCHLIST consensus_score 50.0 below 70.0

Contexto de Equipa

Borussia Dortmund

PPG (atual)

0.75

PPG (histórico)

1.83

Forma recente

41.3

Forma (casa/fora)

50.0 / 0.0

Dias de descanso

195

Amostra (atual/hist.)

4 / 6

Context Score*

36.0

Data Quality

20%

squad continuity unavailable — no transfer/player-minutes data synced for this team
availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
squad continuity: no transfer data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

Villarreal

PPG (atual)

0.00

PPG (histórico)

0.17

Forma recente

3.0

Forma (casa/fora)

0.0 / 0.0

Dias de descanso

222

Amostra (atual/hist.)

2 / 6

Context Score*

17.1

Data Quality

35%

availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Borussia Dortmund

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Villarreal

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	13.1%	7.63	⚠️
8.5	Under	86.9%	1.15	⚠️
9.5	Over	8.1%	12.39	⚠️
9.5	Under	91.9%	1.09	⚠️
10.5	Over	4.8%	20.86	⚠️
10.5	Under	95.2%	1.05	⚠️

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	53.0%	1.89	✅
3.5	Under	47.0%	2.13	✅
4.5	Over	33.6%	2.98	✅
4.5	Under	66.4%	1.51	✅
5.5	Over	18.7%	5.34	✅
5.5	Under	81.3%	1.23	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	68.2%	1.47	✅
7.5	Under	31.8%	3.15	✅
8.5	Over	59.6%	1.68	✅
8.5	Under	40.4%	2.48	✅
9.5	Over	51.0%	1.96	✅
9.5	Under	48.9%	2.04	✅
10.5	Over	42.9%	2.33	✅
10.5	Under	57.1%	1.75	✅
11.5	Over	35.4%	2.83	✅
11.5	Under	64.6%	1.55	✅
12.5	Over	28.7%	3.48	✅
12.5	Under	71.3%	1.40	✅
13.5	Over	22.9%	4.36	✅
13.5	Under	77.0%	1.30	✅
14.5	Over	18.1%	5.53	✅
14.5	Under	81.9%	1.22	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	72.3%	1.38	✅
7.5	Under	27.7%	3.61	✅
8.5	Over	64.3%	1.56	✅
8.5	Under	35.8%	2.80	✅
9.5	Over	56.0%	1.78	✅
9.5	Under	44.0%	2.27	✅
10.5	Over	48.0%	2.08	✅
10.5	Under	52.0%	1.92	✅
11.5	Over	40.4%	2.48	✅
11.5	Under	59.6%	1.68	✅
12.5	Over	33.5%	2.99	✅
12.5	Under	66.5%	1.50	✅
13.5	Over	27.3%	3.66	✅
13.5	Under	72.7%	1.38	✅
14.5	Over	22.0%	4.55	✅
14.5	Under	78.0%	1.28	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	76.6%	1.30	✅
2.5	Under	23.4%	4.28	✅
3.5	Over	61.9%	1.62	✅
3.5	Under	38.1%	2.62	✅
4.5	Over	47.2%	2.12	✅
4.5	Under	52.8%	1.89	✅
5.5	Over	34.2%	2.92	✅
5.5	Under	65.8%	1.52	✅
6.5	Over	23.8%	4.21	✅
6.5	Under	76.2%	1.31	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	59.7%	1.67	✅
2.5	Under	40.3%	2.48	✅
3.5	Over	41.6%	2.40	✅
3.5	Under	58.4%	1.71	✅
4.5	Over	27.0%	3.71	✅
4.5	Under	73.0%	1.37	✅
5.5	Over	16.4%	6.09	✅
5.5	Under	83.6%	1.20	✅
6.5	Over	9.5%	10.51	✅
6.5	Under	90.5%	1.10	✅