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Süper Lig· Turkey

Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK

Agendado

11/09, 17:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

Sem odds Betclic disponíveis para este jogo.

Modelos

ModeloMercadoSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsEVCriadoEstado
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
1X2Fora3.3%30.47—06/09, 22:57FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
1X2Empate14.8%6.77—06/09, 22:57FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
1X2Casa81.9%1.22—06/09, 22:57FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
Ambas MarcamNão71.8%1.39—06/09, 22:57FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
Ambas MarcamSim28.2%3.54—06/09, 22:57FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
Over/Under 2.5Over51.8%1.93—06/09, 22:57FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
Over/Under 2.5Under48.2%2.07—06/09, 22:57FRESH

Consenso & Fiabilidade

MercadoModeloProb.ConsensoPoisson/DCDisagreementFiávelAmostra (casa/fora)
1X2

Fora

dixon_coles3.3%N/AN/AN/A⚠️38 / 4
  • home team has 38 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
  • probability 0.032822 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
1X2

Empate

dixon_coles14.8%N/AN/AN/A⚠️38 / 4
  • home team has 38 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
1X2

Casa

dixon_coles81.9%N/AN/AN/A⚠️38 / 4
  • home team has 38 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Ambas Marcam

Não

dixon_coles71.8%N/AN/AN/A⚠️38 / 4
  • home team has 38 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Ambas Marcam

Sim

dixon_coles28.2%N/AN/AN/A⚠️38 / 4
  • home team has 38 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Over/Under 2.5

Over

dixon_coles51.8%N/AN/AN/A⚠️38 / 4
  • home team has 38 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Over/Under 2.5

Under

dixon_coles48.2%N/AN/AN/A⚠️38 / 4
  • home team has 38 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Nenhuma seleção com odds Betclic suficientes para classificação Safe Value / Top Pick neste jogo.

Contexto de Equipa

Beşiktaş

PPG (atual)

1.90

PPG (histórico)

1.71

Forma recente

62.7

Forma (casa/fora)

69.7 / 56.7

Dias de descanso

6

Amostra (atual/hist.)

21 / 17

Context Score*

67.1

Data Quality

75%

  • availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
  • availability: no squad synced for this team

Erzurumspor FK

PPG (atual)

1.00

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

33.3

Forma (casa/fora)

50.0 / 16.7

Dias de descanso

6

Amostra (atual/hist.)

4 / 0

Context Score*

31.3

Data Quality

20%

  • squad continuity unavailable — no transfer/player-minutes data synced for this team
  • availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
  • squad continuity: no transfer data synced for this team
  • availability: no squad synced for this team

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Beşiktaş

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Erzurumspor FK

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
8.5Over28.3%3.53⚠️
8.5Under71.7%1.40⚠️
9.5Over19.8%5.06⚠️
9.5Under80.2%1.25⚠️
10.5Over13.3%7.54⚠️
10.5Under86.7%1.15⚠️

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
3.5Over24.8%4.03⚠️
3.5Under75.2%1.33⚠️
4.5Over11.2%8.90⚠️
4.5Under88.8%1.13⚠️
5.5Over4.4%22.83⚠️
5.5Under95.6%1.05⚠️

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
7.5Over95.4%1.05⚠️
7.5Under4.6%21.94⚠️
8.5Over93.2%1.07⚠️
8.5Under6.8%14.79⚠️
9.5Over90.4%1.11✅
9.5Under9.6%10.40✅
10.5Over86.9%1.15✅
10.5Under13.1%7.61✅
11.5Over82.7%1.21✅
11.5Under17.3%5.78✅
12.5Over78.0%1.28✅
12.5Under22.0%4.54✅
13.5Over72.8%1.37✅
13.5Under27.2%3.68✅
14.5Over67.3%1.49✅
14.5Under32.7%3.06✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
7.5Over50.4%1.98⚠️
7.5Under49.6%2.02⚠️
8.5Over40.0%2.50⚠️
8.5Under60.0%1.67⚠️
9.5Over30.8%3.24⚠️
9.5Under69.2%1.45⚠️
10.5Over23.1%4.34⚠️
10.5Under76.9%1.30⚠️
11.5Over16.8%5.95✅
11.5Under83.2%1.20✅
12.5Over11.9%8.37✅
12.5Under88.0%1.14✅
13.5Over8.3%12.03✅
13.5Under91.7%1.09✅
14.5Over5.7%17.65⚠️
14.5Under94.3%1.06⚠️

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
2.5Over93.3%1.07⚠️
2.5Under6.7%15.04⚠️
3.5Over86.5%1.16✅
3.5Under13.5%7.40✅
4.5Over77.3%1.29✅
4.5Under22.7%4.41✅
5.5Over66.6%1.50✅
5.5Under33.4%3.00✅
6.5Over55.4%1.80✅
6.5Under44.6%2.24✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
2.5Over43.3%2.31✅
2.5Under56.7%1.76✅
3.5Over24.9%4.01✅
3.5Under75.1%1.33✅
4.5Over13.0%7.70✅
4.5Under87.0%1.15✅
5.5Over6.2%16.03⚠️
5.5Under93.8%1.07⚠️
6.5Over2.8%35.65⚠️
6.5Under97.2%1.03⚠️