Eredivisie· Netherlands

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II

Agendado

11/09, 18:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

Sem odds Betclic disponíveis para este jogo.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	2.5%	39.42	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	6.3%	15.88	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	91.2%	1.10	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	46.9%	2.13	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	53.1%	1.88	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	86.8%	1.15	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	13.2%	7.55	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	2.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	39 / 4 home team has 39 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.025371 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	6.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	39 / 4 home team has 39 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	91.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	39 / 4 home team has 39 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	46.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	39 / 4 home team has 39 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	53.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	39 / 4 home team has 39 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	86.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	39 / 4 home team has 39 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	13.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	39 / 4 home team has 39 finished match(es), away team has 4 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Nenhuma seleção com odds Betclic suficientes para classificação Safe Value / Top Pick neste jogo.

Contexto de Equipa

AZ Alkmaar

PPG (atual)

1.77

PPG (histórico)

1.65

Forma recente

58.6

Forma (casa/fora)

66.7 / 51.5

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

22 / 17

Context Score*

64.3

Data Quality

75%

availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

Willem II

PPG (atual)

0.25

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

8.3

Forma (casa/fora)

11.1 / 0.0

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

4 / 0

Context Score*

21.8

Data Quality

45%

availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

AZ Alkmaar

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Willem II

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	56.3%	1.78	⚠️
8.5	Under	43.7%	2.29	⚠️
9.5	Over	46.3%	2.16	✅
9.5	Under	53.7%	1.86	✅
10.5	Over	37.1%	2.69	✅
10.5	Under	62.9%	1.59	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	13.0%	7.69	⚠️
3.5	Under	87.0%	1.15	⚠️
4.5	Over	4.6%	21.57	⚠️
4.5	Under	95.4%	1.05	⚠️
5.5	Over	1.4%	70.98	⚠️
5.5	Under	98.6%	1.01	⚠️

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	94.8%	1.05	⚠️
7.5	Under	5.2%	19.34	⚠️
8.5	Over	94.0%	1.06	⚠️
8.5	Under	6.0%	16.73	⚠️
9.5	Over	92.9%	1.08	⚠️
9.5	Under	7.1%	14.07	⚠️
10.5	Over	91.4%	1.09	✅
10.5	Under	8.6%	11.60	✅
11.5	Over	89.5%	1.12	✅
11.5	Under	10.5%	9.48	✅
12.5	Over	87.1%	1.15	✅
12.5	Under	12.9%	7.74	✅
13.5	Over	84.3%	1.19	✅
13.5	Under	15.8%	6.35	✅
14.5	Over	81.0%	1.24	✅
14.5	Under	19.0%	5.26	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	62.4%	1.60	✅
7.5	Under	37.6%	2.66	✅
8.5	Over	52.4%	1.91	⚠️
8.5	Under	47.6%	2.10	⚠️
9.5	Over	42.9%	2.33	⚠️
9.5	Under	57.1%	1.75	⚠️
10.5	Over	34.1%	2.93	⚠️
10.5	Under	65.9%	1.52	⚠️
11.5	Over	26.6%	3.77	⚠️
11.5	Under	73.4%	1.36	⚠️
12.5	Over	20.2%	4.95	⚠️
12.5	Under	79.8%	1.25	⚠️
13.5	Over	15.0%	6.65	✅
13.5	Under	85.0%	1.18	✅
14.5	Over	11.0%	9.10	✅
14.5	Under	89.0%	1.12	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	98.8%	1.01	⚠️
2.5	Under	1.2%	82.10	⚠️
3.5	Over	97.0%	1.03	⚠️
3.5	Under	3.0%	32.79	⚠️
4.5	Over	93.8%	1.07	⚠️
4.5	Under	6.2%	16.14	⚠️
5.5	Over	89.1%	1.12	✅
5.5	Under	10.8%	9.22	✅
6.5	Over	83.0%	1.21	⚠️
6.5	Under	17.0%	5.89	⚠️

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	24.6%	4.07	⚠️
2.5	Under	75.4%	1.33	⚠️
3.5	Over	10.6%	9.44	⚠️
3.5	Under	89.4%	1.12	⚠️
4.5	Over	4.0%	24.75	⚠️
4.5	Under	96.0%	1.04	⚠️
5.5	Over	1.4%	71.63	⚠️
5.5	Under	98.6%	1.01	⚠️
6.5	Over	0.4%	224.65	⚠️
6.5	Under	99.6%	1.00	⚠️