Ligue 1· France

Lille vs Estac Troyes

Agendado

13/09, 13:00

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

Sem odds Betclic disponíveis para este jogo.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	8.9%	11.29	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	15.1%	6.61	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	76.0%	1.32	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	45.7%	2.19	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	54.3%	1.84	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	69.3%	1.44	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	30.7%	3.26	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	8.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	37 / 3 home team has 37 finished match(es), away team has 3 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	15.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	37 / 3 home team has 37 finished match(es), away team has 3 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	76.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	37 / 3 home team has 37 finished match(es), away team has 3 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	45.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	37 / 3 home team has 37 finished match(es), away team has 3 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	54.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	37 / 3 home team has 37 finished match(es), away team has 3 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	69.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	37 / 3 home team has 37 finished match(es), away team has 3 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	30.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	37 / 3 home team has 37 finished match(es), away team has 3 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Nenhuma seleção com odds Betclic suficientes para classificação Safe Value / Top Pick neste jogo.

Contexto de Equipa

Lille

PPG (atual)

1.80

PPG (histórico)

1.88

Forma recente

60.4

Forma (casa/fora)

40.7 / 75.8

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

20 / 17

Context Score*

63.7

Data Quality

75%

availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

Estac Troyes

PPG (atual)

1.33

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

44.4

Forma (casa/fora)

16.7 / 100.0

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

3 / 0

Context Score*

47.7

Data Quality

40%

availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Lille

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Estac Troyes

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	25.9%	3.86	⚠️
8.5	Under	74.1%	1.35	⚠️
9.5	Over	18.0%	5.55	⚠️
9.5	Under	82.0%	1.22	⚠️
10.5	Over	12.1%	8.25	⚠️
10.5	Under	87.9%	1.14	⚠️

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	56.2%	1.78	✅
3.5	Under	43.8%	2.28	✅
4.5	Over	36.7%	2.73	✅
4.5	Under	63.3%	1.58	✅
5.5	Over	21.1%	4.73	✅
5.5	Under	78.9%	1.27	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	90.6%	1.10	✅
7.5	Under	9.4%	10.66	✅
8.5	Over	86.5%	1.16	✅
8.5	Under	13.5%	7.38	✅
9.5	Over	81.5%	1.23	✅
9.5	Under	18.5%	5.41	✅
10.5	Over	75.9%	1.32	✅
10.5	Under	24.1%	4.15	✅
11.5	Over	69.8%	1.43	✅
11.5	Under	30.2%	3.31	✅
12.5	Over	63.3%	1.58	✅
12.5	Under	36.7%	2.73	✅
13.5	Over	56.8%	1.76	✅
13.5	Under	43.2%	2.31	✅
14.5	Over	50.3%	1.99	✅
14.5	Under	49.7%	2.01	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	41.9%	2.39	⚠️
7.5	Under	58.1%	1.72	⚠️
8.5	Over	32.0%	3.13	⚠️
8.5	Under	68.0%	1.47	⚠️
9.5	Over	23.7%	4.22	⚠️
9.5	Under	76.3%	1.31	⚠️
10.5	Over	17.0%	5.87	⚠️
10.5	Under	83.0%	1.21	⚠️
11.5	Over	12.0%	8.37	⚠️
11.5	Under	88.0%	1.14	⚠️
12.5	Over	8.2%	12.21	✅
12.5	Under	91.8%	1.09	✅
13.5	Over	5.5%	18.20	⚠️
13.5	Under	94.5%	1.06	⚠️
14.5	Over	3.6%	27.67	⚠️
14.5	Under	96.4%	1.04	⚠️

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	78.4%	1.27	✅
2.5	Under	21.6%	4.63	✅
3.5	Over	62.8%	1.59	✅
3.5	Under	37.2%	2.69	✅
4.5	Over	46.7%	2.14	✅
4.5	Under	53.3%	1.88	✅
5.5	Over	32.5%	3.08	✅
5.5	Under	67.5%	1.48	✅
6.5	Over	21.3%	4.69	✅
6.5	Under	78.7%	1.27	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	17.8%	5.60	⚠️
2.5	Under	82.2%	1.22	⚠️
3.5	Over	6.7%	14.96	⚠️
3.5	Under	93.3%	1.07	⚠️
4.5	Over	2.2%	45.40	⚠️
4.5	Under	97.8%	1.02	⚠️
5.5	Over	0.7%	152.45	⚠️
5.5	Under	99.3%	1.01	⚠️
6.5	Over	0.2%	556.02	⚠️
6.5	Under	99.8%	1.00	⚠️