Ligue 1· France

Paris FC vs Lyon

Agendado

12/09, 18:45

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate3.47betclic_frFRESH

Casa2.60betclic_frFRESH

Fora2.40betclic_frFRESH

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	37.0%	2.70	-11.1%	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	27.4%	3.66	-5.1%	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	35.6%	2.81	-7.4%	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	44.2%	2.26	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	55.8%	1.79	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	50.9%	1.97	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	49.1%	2.04	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	37.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	37 / 37
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	27.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	37 / 37
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	35.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	37 / 37
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	44.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	37 / 37
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	55.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	37 / 37
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	50.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	37 / 37
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	49.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	37 / 37

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	48	REJECTED EV (-0.1112) is below the value threshold	REJECTED EV (-0.1112) is clearly negative (below -0.01)
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	48	REJECTED EV (-0.0509) is below the value threshold	REJECTED EV (-0.0509) is clearly negative (below -0.01)
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	48	REJECTED EV (-0.0740) is below the value threshold	REJECTED EV (-0.0740) is clearly negative (below -0.01)

Contexto de Equipa

Paris FC

PPG (atual)

1.75

PPG (histórico)

0.94

Forma recente

54.8

Forma (casa/fora)

66.7 / 50.0

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

20 / 17

Context Score*

57.9

Data Quality

50%

squad continuity unavailable — no transfer/player-minutes data synced for this team
availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
squad continuity: no transfer data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

Lyon

PPG (atual)

1.85

PPG (histórico)

1.76

Forma recente

61.3

Forma (casa/fora)

69.7 / 51.9

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

20 / 17

Context Score*

60.3

Data Quality

50%

squad continuity unavailable — no transfer/player-minutes data synced for this team
availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
squad continuity: no transfer data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Paris FC

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Lyon

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	69.3%	1.44	✅
8.5	Under	30.6%	3.26	✅
9.5	Over	60.5%	1.65	✅
9.5	Under	39.5%	2.53	✅
10.5	Over	51.5%	1.94	✅
10.5	Under	48.5%	2.06	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	63.0%	1.59	✅
3.5	Under	37.0%	2.70	✅
4.5	Over	43.7%	2.29	✅
4.5	Under	56.3%	1.78	✅
5.5	Over	27.0%	3.71	✅
5.5	Under	73.0%	1.37	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	83.1%	1.20	✅
7.5	Under	16.9%	5.93	✅
8.5	Over	76.8%	1.30	✅
8.5	Under	23.2%	4.30	✅
9.5	Over	69.7%	1.44	✅
9.5	Under	30.3%	3.30	✅
10.5	Over	62.2%	1.61	✅
10.5	Under	37.8%	2.65	✅
11.5	Over	54.7%	1.83	✅
11.5	Under	45.3%	2.21	✅
12.5	Over	47.3%	2.12	✅
12.5	Under	52.7%	1.90	✅
13.5	Over	40.3%	2.48	✅
13.5	Under	59.7%	1.68	✅
14.5	Over	33.8%	2.96	✅
14.5	Under	66.2%	1.51	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	75.7%	1.32	✅
7.5	Under	24.3%	4.11	✅
8.5	Over	67.7%	1.48	✅
8.5	Under	32.3%	3.10	✅
9.5	Over	59.4%	1.68	✅
9.5	Under	40.6%	2.46	✅
10.5	Over	51.1%	1.96	✅
10.5	Under	48.9%	2.04	✅
11.5	Over	43.1%	2.32	✅
11.5	Under	56.9%	1.76	✅
12.5	Over	35.7%	2.80	✅
12.5	Under	64.3%	1.56	✅
13.5	Over	29.1%	3.44	✅
13.5	Under	70.9%	1.41	✅
14.5	Over	23.4%	4.28	✅
14.5	Under	76.6%	1.30	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	69.7%	1.44	✅
2.5	Under	30.3%	3.30	✅
3.5	Over	51.5%	1.94	✅
3.5	Under	48.5%	2.06	✅
4.5	Over	35.0%	2.86	✅
4.5	Under	65.0%	1.54	✅
5.5	Over	22.1%	4.53	✅
5.5	Under	77.9%	1.28	✅
6.5	Over	13.0%	7.67	✅
6.5	Under	87.0%	1.15	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	70.2%	1.43	✅
2.5	Under	29.8%	3.35	✅
3.5	Over	52.1%	1.92	✅
3.5	Under	47.9%	2.09	✅
4.5	Over	35.6%	2.81	✅
4.5	Under	64.4%	1.55	✅
5.5	Over	22.5%	4.44	✅
5.5	Under	77.5%	1.29	✅
6.5	Over	13.4%	7.48	✅
6.5	Under	86.6%	1.15	✅