Bundesliga· Germany

SV Elversberg vs Bayern München

Agendado

13/09, 15:30

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

Sem odds Betclic disponíveis para este jogo.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	66.3%	1.51	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	12.2%	8.21	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	21.6%	4.64	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	5.0%	19.95	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	95.0%	1.05	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	98.6%	1.01	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	1.4%	73.25	—	06/09, 22:56	FRESH

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	66.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	2 / 36 home team has 2 finished match(es), away team has 36 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	12.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	2 / 36 home team has 2 finished match(es), away team has 36 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	21.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	2 / 36 home team has 2 finished match(es), away team has 36 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	5.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	2 / 36 home team has 2 finished match(es), away team has 36 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	95.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	2 / 36 home team has 2 finished match(es), away team has 36 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	98.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	2 / 36 home team has 2 finished match(es), away team has 36 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.986348 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	1.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A	⚠️	2 / 36 home team has 2 finished match(es), away team has 36 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet) probability 0.013652 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Nenhuma seleção com odds Betclic suficientes para classificação Safe Value / Top Pick neste jogo.

Contexto de Equipa

SV Elversberg

PPG (atual)

3.00

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

100.0

Forma (casa/fora)

100.0 / 100.0

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

2 / 0

Context Score*

86.3

Data Quality

10%

squad continuity unavailable — no transfer/player-minutes data synced for this team
availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
squad continuity: no transfer data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

Bayern München

PPG (atual)

2.42

PPG (histórico)

2.76

Forma recente

82.3

Forma (casa/fora)

81.5 / 80.0

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

19 / 17

Context Score*

81.9

Data Quality

75%

availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

SV Elversberg

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Bayern München

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	37.9%	2.64	⚠️
8.5	Under	62.1%	1.61	⚠️
9.5	Over	28.3%	3.54	⚠️
9.5	Under	71.7%	1.39	⚠️
10.5	Over	20.4%	4.91	⚠️
10.5	Under	79.6%	1.26	⚠️

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	60.8%	1.64	✅
3.5	Under	39.2%	2.55	✅
4.5	Over	41.4%	2.42	✅
4.5	Under	58.6%	1.71	✅
5.5	Over	25.0%	4.00	✅
5.5	Under	75.0%	1.33	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	74.1%	1.35	✅
7.5	Under	25.9%	3.85	✅
8.5	Over	65.1%	1.53	✅
8.5	Under	34.9%	2.87	✅
9.5	Over	55.9%	1.79	✅
9.5	Under	44.1%	2.27	✅
10.5	Over	46.7%	2.14	✅
10.5	Under	53.3%	1.88	✅
11.5	Over	38.1%	2.62	✅
11.5	Under	61.9%	1.62	✅
12.5	Over	30.4%	3.29	✅
12.5	Under	69.6%	1.44	✅
13.5	Over	23.7%	4.21	✅
13.5	Under	76.3%	1.31	✅
14.5	Over	18.1%	5.51	✅
14.5	Under	81.9%	1.22	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	97.1%	1.03	⚠️
7.5	Under	2.9%	34.78	⚠️
8.5	Over	95.9%	1.04	⚠️
8.5	Under	4.1%	24.45	⚠️
9.5	Over	94.2%	1.06	⚠️
9.5	Under	5.8%	17.25	⚠️
10.5	Over	91.9%	1.09	✅
10.5	Under	8.1%	12.41	✅
11.5	Over	89.1%	1.12	✅
11.5	Under	10.9%	9.16	✅
12.5	Over	85.6%	1.17	✅
12.5	Under	14.4%	6.95	✅
13.5	Over	81.6%	1.23	✅
13.5	Under	18.4%	5.43	✅
14.5	Over	77.0%	1.30	✅
14.5	Under	23.0%	4.36	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	69.6%	1.44	✅
2.5	Under	30.4%	3.29	✅
3.5	Over	51.2%	1.95	✅
3.5	Under	48.8%	2.05	✅
4.5	Over	34.6%	2.89	✅
4.5	Under	65.4%	1.53	✅
5.5	Over	21.6%	4.63	✅
5.5	Under	78.4%	1.27	✅
6.5	Over	12.6%	7.93	✅
6.5	Under	87.4%	1.14	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	91.3%	1.09	✅
2.5	Under	8.7%	11.48	✅
3.5	Over	82.3%	1.22	✅
3.5	Under	17.7%	5.66	✅
4.5	Over	70.7%	1.41	✅
4.5	Under	29.3%	3.41	✅
5.5	Over	57.8%	1.73	✅
5.5	Under	42.2%	2.37	✅
6.5	Over	45.1%	2.22	✅
6.5	Under	54.9%	1.82	✅