Bundesliga· Germany

1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

Agendado

12/09, 16:30

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate3.70betclic_frFRESH

Fora3.27betclic_frFRESH

Casa2.02betclic_frFRESH

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

Modelo	Mercado	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	EV	Criado	Estado
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Fora	25.6%	3.91	-16.3%	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Empate	23.8%	4.20	-12.0%	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	1X2	Casa	50.6%	1.98	+2.2%	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Não	41.9%	2.39	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Ambas Marcam	Sim	58.1%	1.72	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Over	56.9%	1.76	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH
dixon_coles OPERATIONAL	Over/Under 2.5	Under	43.1%	2.32	—	06/09, 21:56	FRESH

Consenso & Fiabilidade

Mercado	Modelo	Prob.	Consenso	Poisson/DC	Disagreement	Fiável	Amostra (casa/fora)
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	25.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	36 / 36
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	23.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	36 / 36
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	50.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	36 / 36
Ambas Marcam Não	dixon_coles	41.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	36 / 36
Ambas Marcam Sim	dixon_coles	58.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	36 / 36
Over/Under 2.5 Over	dixon_coles	56.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	36 / 36
Over/Under 2.5 Under	dixon_coles	43.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A	✅	36 / 36

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

Mercado	Modelo	Score	Safe Value	Safe Pick
1X2 Fora	dixon_coles	49	REJECTED EV (-0.1632) is below the value threshold	REJECTED EV (-0.1632) is clearly negative (below -0.01)
1X2 Empate	dixon_coles	49	REJECTED EV (-0.1196) is below the value threshold	REJECTED EV (-0.1196) is clearly negative (below -0.01)
1X2 Casa	dixon_coles	51	REJECTED EV (0.0224) is below the value threshold	REJECTED probability 0.506 below the 0.55 watchlist floor

Contexto de Equipa

1. FC Köln

PPG (atual)

0.95

PPG (histórico)

1.00

Forma recente

31.8

Forma (casa/fora)

46.7 / 14.8

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

19 / 17

Context Score*

41.9

Data Quality

75%

availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

Werder Bremen

PPG (atual)

0.90

PPG (histórico)

1.06

Forma recente

30.7

Forma (casa/fora)

33.3 / 25.9

Dias de descanso

Amostra (atual/hist.)

20 / 16

Context Score*

34.7

Data Quality

50%

squad continuity unavailable — no transfer/player-minutes data synced for this team
availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
squad continuity: no transfer data synced for this team
availability: no squad synced for this team

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

1. FC Köln

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Werder Bremen

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

Nunca mostrado como Value Bet (sem EV) · ODDS_READY=false · PUBLICATION_READY=false

Sem Player Props disponíveis para este jogo.

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
8.5	Over	64.8%	1.54	✅
8.5	Under	35.2%	2.84	✅
9.5	Over	55.3%	1.81	✅
9.5	Under	44.7%	2.24	✅
10.5	Over	45.9%	2.18	✅
10.5	Under	54.1%	1.85	✅

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
3.5	Over	69.7%	1.43	✅
3.5	Under	30.3%	3.30	✅
4.5	Over	51.4%	1.95	✅
4.5	Under	48.6%	2.06	✅
5.5	Over	33.9%	2.95	✅
5.5	Under	66.1%	1.51	✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	94.0%	1.06	⚠️
7.5	Under	6.0%	16.57	⚠️
8.5	Over	90.7%	1.10	✅
8.5	Under	9.3%	10.75	✅
9.5	Over	86.5%	1.16	✅
9.5	Under	13.5%	7.43	✅
10.5	Over	81.5%	1.23	✅
10.5	Under	18.5%	5.42	✅
11.5	Over	75.8%	1.32	✅
11.5	Under	24.2%	4.13	✅
12.5	Over	69.5%	1.44	✅
12.5	Under	30.5%	3.28	✅
13.5	Over	62.9%	1.59	✅
13.5	Under	37.1%	2.69	✅
14.5	Over	56.1%	1.78	✅
14.5	Under	43.9%	2.28	✅

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
7.5	Over	82.3%	1.22	✅
7.5	Under	17.7%	5.65	✅
8.5	Over	75.1%	1.33	✅
8.5	Under	24.9%	4.02	✅
9.5	Over	67.1%	1.49	✅
9.5	Under	32.9%	3.04	✅
10.5	Over	58.7%	1.70	✅
10.5	Under	41.3%	2.42	✅
11.5	Over	50.3%	1.99	✅
11.5	Under	49.7%	2.01	✅
12.5	Over	42.2%	2.37	✅
12.5	Under	57.8%	1.73	✅
13.5	Over	34.8%	2.88	✅
13.5	Under	65.3%	1.53	✅
14.5	Over	28.1%	3.56	✅
14.5	Under	71.9%	1.39	✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	87.8%	1.14	✅
2.5	Under	12.2%	8.19	✅
3.5	Over	76.5%	1.31	✅
3.5	Under	23.5%	4.26	✅
4.5	Over	62.9%	1.59	✅
4.5	Under	37.1%	2.70	✅
5.5	Over	48.9%	2.04	✅
5.5	Under	51.1%	1.96	✅
6.5	Over	36.1%	2.77	✅
6.5	Under	63.9%	1.56	✅

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

Linha	Seleção	Prob.	Fair Odds	Fiável
2.5	Over	65.1%	1.54	✅
2.5	Under	34.9%	2.87	✅
3.5	Over	46.0%	2.17	✅
3.5	Under	54.0%	1.85	✅
4.5	Over	29.6%	3.38	✅
4.5	Under	70.4%	1.42	✅
5.5	Over	17.6%	5.69	✅
5.5	Under	82.4%	1.21	✅
6.5	Over	9.7%	10.28	✅
6.5	Under	90.3%	1.11	✅