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Bundesliga· Germany

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

Agendado

11/09, 18:30

Odds Betclic

Apenas Betclic, sem fallback para outro bookmaker — uma lista vazia significa que a Betclic nunca cotou este mercado.

1X2

Empate3.63betclic_frFRESH
Casa2.15betclic_frFRESH
Fora3.05betclic_frFRESH

Over/Under 2.5

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Ambas Marcam (BTTS)

Sem cotação Betclic para este mercado.

Modelos

ModeloMercadoSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsEVCriadoEstado
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
1X2Fora0.6%160.02-98.1%06/09, 21:56FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
1X2Empate40.0%2.50+45.0%06/09, 21:56FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
1X2Casa59.4%1.68+27.8%06/09, 21:56FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
Ambas MarcamNão99.0%1.01—06/09, 21:56FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
Ambas MarcamSim1.0%104.30—06/09, 21:56FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
Over/Under 2.5Over6.8%14.63—06/09, 21:56FRESH
dixon_coles
OPERATIONAL
Over/Under 2.5Under93.2%1.07—06/09, 21:56FRESH

Consenso & Fiabilidade

MercadoModeloProb.ConsensoPoisson/DCDisagreementFiávelAmostra (casa/fora)
1X2

Fora

dixon_coles0.6%N/AN/AN/A⚠️36 / 2
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
  • probability 0.006249 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
1X2

Empate

dixon_coles40.0%N/AN/AN/A⚠️36 / 2
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
1X2

Casa

dixon_coles59.4%N/AN/AN/A⚠️36 / 2
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Ambas Marcam

Não

dixon_coles99.0%N/AN/AN/A⚠️36 / 2
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
  • probability 0.990412 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
Ambas Marcam

Sim

dixon_coles1.0%N/AN/AN/A⚠️36 / 2
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
  • probability 0.009588 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
Over/Under 2.5

Over

dixon_coles6.8%N/AN/AN/A⚠️36 / 2
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
Over/Under 2.5

Under

dixon_coles93.2%N/AN/AN/A⚠️36 / 2
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)

Safe Value / Top Pick / Watchlist

MercadoModeloScoreSafe ValueSafe Pick
1X2

Fora

dixon_coles50REJECTED
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
  • probability 0.006249 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
  • EV (-0.9809) is below the value threshold
REJECTED
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
  • probability 0.006249 is extreme and not well-supported (insufficient per-team sample or a degenerate model fit) — likely a modelling artefact from too little data, not a genuinely near-certain outcome
1X2

Empate

dixon_coles85REJECTED
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
REJECTED
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
1X2

Casa

dixon_coles82REJECTED
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)
REJECTED
  • home team has 36 finished match(es), away team has 2 (minimum 8 each required for a real Value Bet)

Contexto de Equipa

Union Berlin

PPG (atual)

0.90

PPG (histórico)

1.38

Forma recente

32.1

Forma (casa/fora)

37.0 / 24.2

Dias de descanso

6

Amostra (atual/hist.)

20 / 16

Context Score*

33.7

Data Quality

50%

  • squad continuity unavailable — no transfer/player-minutes data synced for this team
  • availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
  • squad continuity: no transfer data synced for this team
  • availability: no squad synced for this team

FC Schalke 04

PPG (atual)

0.50

PPG (histórico)

N/A

Forma recente

16.7

Forma (casa/fora)

33.3 / 0.0

Dias de descanso

6

Amostra (atual/hist.)

2 / 0

Context Score*

25.9

Data Quality

10%

  • squad continuity unavailable — no transfer/player-minutes data synced for this team
  • availability unavailable — no injury/suspension data synced for this team
  • squad continuity: no transfer data synced for this team
  • availability: no squad synced for this team

* Context Score é um sinal composto (forma, ataque, defesa, continuidade de plantel), não uma probabilidade nem um fator causal isolado.

Jogadores

Union Berlin

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

FC Schalke 04

Sem jogadores conhecidos para esta equipa.

Player Props

EXPERIMENTAL

A calcular Player Props (walk-forward de participação — pode demorar até ~25s neste jogo)…

Multi-Market

EXPERIMENTAL

Corners, Cartões, Remates — nunca exposto como Value Bet.

corners_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Baseline recomendado

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
8.5Over84.1%1.19⚠️
8.5Under15.9%6.29⚠️
9.5Over78.1%1.28⚠️
9.5Under21.9%4.56⚠️
10.5Over71.3%1.40⚠️
10.5Under28.7%3.49⚠️

cards_total

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: poisson) · Baseline recomendado

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
3.5Over39.7%2.52✅
3.5Under60.3%1.66✅
4.5Over21.9%4.57✅
4.5Under78.1%1.28✅
5.5Over10.5%9.52✅
5.5Under89.5%1.12✅

home_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
7.5Over97.0%1.03⚠️
7.5Under3.0%33.32⚠️
8.5Over96.0%1.04⚠️
8.5Under4.0%25.15⚠️
9.5Over94.6%1.06⚠️
9.5Under5.4%18.63⚠️
10.5Over92.8%1.08⚠️
10.5Under7.2%13.80⚠️
11.5Over90.3%1.11✅
11.5Under9.7%10.35✅
12.5Over87.4%1.15✅
12.5Under12.6%7.92✅
13.5Over83.9%1.19⚠️
13.5Under16.2%6.19⚠️
14.5Over79.8%1.25⚠️
14.5Under20.2%4.95⚠️

away_team_shots

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: count (usado: negative_binomial) · Count recomendado

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
7.5Over79.1%1.26✅
7.5Under20.9%4.78✅
8.5Over71.1%1.41✅
8.5Under28.9%3.46✅
9.5Over62.5%1.60✅
9.5Under37.5%2.67✅
10.5Over53.7%1.86✅
10.5Under46.3%2.16✅
11.5Over45.1%2.21✅
11.5Under54.9%1.82✅
12.5Over37.1%2.69✅
12.5Under62.9%1.59✅
13.5Over29.9%3.34✅
13.5Under70.1%1.43✅
14.5Over23.6%4.23✅
14.5Under76.4%1.31✅

home_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
2.5Over97.9%1.02⚠️
2.5Under2.1%46.75⚠️
3.5Over94.8%1.05⚠️
3.5Under5.1%19.43⚠️
4.5Over90.0%1.11⚠️
4.5Under10.0%9.97⚠️
5.5Over83.2%1.20⚠️
5.5Under16.8%5.95⚠️
6.5Over74.8%1.34⚠️
6.5Under25.2%3.97⚠️

away_team_shots_on_target

EXPERIMENTALODDS UNAVAILABLE

Modelo recomendado: baseline (usado: negative_binomial) · Experimental (inconclusivo)

LinhaSeleçãoProb.Fair OddsFiável
2.5Over75.6%1.32✅
2.5Under24.4%4.09✅
3.5Over58.8%1.70✅
3.5Under41.2%2.43✅
4.5Over42.3%2.37✅
4.5Under57.7%1.73✅
5.5Over28.3%3.54✅
5.5Under71.7%1.39✅
6.5Over17.7%5.64✅
6.5Under82.3%1.22✅